France’s presidential election on Sunday promises to rile a lot of people. Depending on where they sit on the ideological spectrum, political junkies will blow a fuse. Wall Street, meanwhile, will be preparing for the future of the euro.
Of the political noise, Salon.com serves as case in point, now wondering whether democracy has died (because their team hasn’t won enough votes yet.) This is sort of like a Trump vs Hillary II, starring nationalist Marine Le Pen as Trump and establishment candidate Emmanuel Macron as Hillary, for lack of a better candidate. In the market, odds gamblers at PredictIt.org have Le Pen getting the most votes in the first round. If she gets over 50% — a shocker — there will be no run-off scheduled for May 7. If she gets over 30% of the votes on Sunday, however, she will go into May with massive momentum on her side.
“I’m not ready to make a call yet on a Le Pen victory,” says Vladimir Signorelli, founder of Brettonwoods Research in Long Valley, NJ. Brettonwoods correctly called the Trump win. “I’ve been telling my clients that if she gets over 30% of the vote on Sunday, she has a good chance to win it all.”
French opinion polls on Friday have Macron and Le Pen in a dead heat going into tomorrow’s election.
But that poll was conducted before Thursday’s shooting of a police officer in Paris by a Muslim gunman named Karim Cheurfi. Cheurfri had spent many years already in a French prison for shooting two police officers and was released on appeal. He was arrested again in February after buying weapons somehow (it’s illegal to own firearms in France) and was let go for lack of evidence. Two months later, he shoots a French police officer who was reportedly gay, or at least was a member of a gay rights group. Thursday night’s final debate was canceled as a result.